Every festive-season media plan crossing our desk this month makes the same two assumptions: that Diwali week is still the moment that decides the quarter, and that a buyer comparing a premium apartment or a high-ticket interior package is still doing that comparison entirely inside Google. Neither assumption survived this September. Two separate reports, both published in the last ten days, confirm the season has gotten longer and the research has moved somewhere your dashboard probably isn't tracking.
The Season Doesn't Start in October Anymore
Exchange4media reported on 21 September 2026 that India's total advertising expenditure for 2026 is projected at ₹1,74,605 crore, up 12-13% from ₹1,55,105 crore in 2025, with digital's share climbing to 46% from 42%. The more important detail is structural: the festive season itself has stretched into a continuous nine-week run from Navratri through New Year, spanning seven distinct consumption occasions rather than one Diwali-week peak.
Arjun Ranga, Managing Director of Cycle Pure Agarbathi, told the publication that festive occasions are "becoming more spread out across the quarter." Cadbury Celebrations and Flipkart were both cited running one consistent brand narrative across Rakhi, Durga Pujo, Diwali and New Year rather than four disconnected campaigns — a serialised approach rather than a single push. If your festive plan is still one creative burst timed to Diwali week, you are already planning for a season that no longer exists.
The Bigger Shift: Buyers Are Asking AI Before They Ask You
The second data point is arguably more consequential for high-ticket sellers. Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast, published 28 September 2026, projects US online holiday sales will hit $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year-on-year — and within that, traffic to retail sites referred by independent AI platforms such as ChatGPT and Claude is forecast to rise 130% year-on-year, spiking 159% on Thanksgiving and 95% on Black Friday. Adobe also reports that shoppers who research via AI chatbots show 77% higher purchase confidence and spend more per transaction than visitors arriving through non-AI channels.
One honest caveat, confirmed in Bloomberg's coverage of the same Adobe data on 29 September 2026: this is a US measurement of traffic from independent AI platforms, deliberately excluding on-site search on retailers like Amazon or Walmart, and actual purchases completed directly through AI agents remain minimal since major retailers restrict bot access. There is no equivalent, independently audited number for India yet — treat the 130% figure as a directional US data point, not an India benchmark to plan a budget against. What it does confirm is the pattern we already track in our own AI search visibility audits: high-consideration buyers increasingly form their shortlist in a conversation with an AI assistant before a single paid ad or organic listing gets a click.
Real Estate and Jewellery Are Carrying This Festive Season
This matters most for exactly the categories Hynova works in. A second Exchange4media report from 25 September 2026 found 70-80% of prime out-of-home inventory in key Indian markets already booked, with festive OOH spend projected at ₹2,300-2,400 crore, up 15-20% year-on-year, and digital OOH taking as much as 40% of Diwali bookings for some operators. Quick commerce and digital-first brands are named as the fastest-growing spenders — but the report is explicit that real estate remains the market leader category and jewellery is defending its share despite lower unit volumes.
These are precisely the high-ticket, long-consideration categories where a buyer spends weeks comparing options before ever picking up the phone. If premium inventory is already 70-80% booked and your buyer is increasingly forming that shortlist through an AI conversation rather than a search results page, the two trends compound: media costs are rising for a shrinking pool of physical and paid slots, while the free, compounding channel — showing up correctly when an AI assistant is asked to compare options — still sits unclaimed for most real estate and luxury interiors brands we audit.
What to Actually Do About It This Quarter
None of this calls for a bigger festive budget. It calls for reallocating what you already planned to spend, in this order:
- Build one narrative, not four campaigns. Copy the logic Cadbury Celebrations and Flipkart used — one consistent brand thought expressed differently across Navratri, Diwali and the New Year — instead of a single Diwali-week burst. This is standard practice in our AI performance marketing work: a serialised plan spends less on repeated creative production and gives an AI search engine a consistent, repeated set of facts to learn about your brand.
- Audit your AI search visibility before you commit paid budget. If a buyer asks ChatGPT or Perplexity to compare developers or interior studios in your city today, find out what it says. This does not compete for the same shrinking OOH and CTV inventory everyone else is bidding on, and it keeps compounding after the season ends.
- Separate AI-referred traffic in your attribution from day one. Adobe's own data shows these visitors convert differently and warrant a different follow-up cadence. If your analytics still lump ChatGPT and Claude referrals in with "direct" or "other," you cannot see the shift happening in your own numbers.
- Lock remaining premium inventory now, not in October. With 70-80% already gone in prime markets, waiting costs more per slot every week from here.
The Takeaway
The festive season stopped being a one-week event and buyer research stopped being a single-channel activity in the same month. Neither shift is a reason to panic-spend on more OOH or more Google Ads — most of the premium inventory is already gone, and outbidding competitors for what's left has a ceiling. The channel that doesn't have a ceiling, and that most real estate, jewellery and luxury brands haven't touched yet, is whether an AI assistant recommends you when a high-ticket buyer asks it to compare options. Fix that first. Everything else is timing and budget allocation on a season that now runs nine weeks instead of one.
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Is it too late to start festive 2026 campaigns if we haven't planned yet?
You've missed the Navratri opening, not the season. Exchange4media reported on 21 September 2026 that India's festive window now runs roughly nine weeks, from Navratri through New Year, across seven distinct consumption occasions — not one Diwali-week spike. The bigger risk is inventory, not timing: a 25 September 2026 Exchange4media report found 70-80% of prime OOH inventory in key markets was already booked. Start now, but expect to pay more for physical media and lean harder on owned and AI-search channels.
Does Adobe's 130% AI-assisted shopping traffic figure apply to Indian buyers too?
Not directly, and it would be dishonest to claim otherwise. Adobe's figure, published 28-29 September 2026, measures traffic from independent AI platforms like ChatGPT and Claude to US retail sites — there is no equivalent, independently audited India number yet. What is documented is that high-ticket Indian buyers already spend meaningful time researching before ever contacting a real estate developer or luxury interiors studio. Treat Adobe's multiplier as a US data point that signals direction, not an India benchmark to plan a budget against.
What is the single highest-priority fix before this festive season?
Run an AI search visibility check before you spend on media. Premium OOH and CTV inventory is time-boxed and largely gone already, but whether AI assistants recommend your brand when a buyer asks a comparison question is not seasonal — it compounds, and it is unaffected by how late you start. Fix that first, then layer paid and OOH spend on top of it.